July 2014 Investment Strategy

Events have largely unfolded as we expected during the first half of 2014. The S&P 500 has slowly climbed higher, now up 6.1%. The market underwent a healthy, but minor, correction of 5.8% early in the year and is now setting new all-time highs in a succession of modest daily moves of 0.5% or less. Unrest in the emerging markets continues to grow, with continued conflict in Ukraine, a military coup in Thailand, and a militant insurgency across northern Iraq. Alarmingly, there are now more displaced people in the world than at any time since WWII. Although many things have gone as we anticipated, there have been two major surprises: much lower interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and lower volatility overall. Despite these surprises, we have become more convinced that the U.S. equity market is the best place to find value in today’s investment world and the safest place to generate consistent income.

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