October 2017 Investment Strategy

The stock market continues to gradually trend upwards while experiencing record low volatility. Thus far in 2017, the S&P 500 Index has only recorded eight days when the market moved as much as 1%, the lowest number since 1972. More remarkably, the maximum total drawdown in 2017 (3/1 to 4/13) was only 2.8%. This will easily set the record for the smallest annual pull-back in history if we do not experience even a minor correction before the end of the year. The signs of investor complacency extend into many corners including a few staggering examples in the international bond market. We believe the Federal Reserve is becoming concerned about many of these same indicators which has led them to finally begin removing crisis-era stimulus measures. Although the market seems to dismiss their actions, we believe the most recent Federal Reserve meeting contained important statements on how the central bank intends to return to normalcy.

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