July 2018 Investment Strategy

The S&P 500 Index traded sideways over the past quarter and failed to retake the highs of late January. The mega tech firms and energy companies have continued to charge ahead while most other sectors of the market remain in limbo or have declined. The most interesting developments are occurring overseas. The Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy is beginning to reverberate in the weakest international markets. The currency and bond markets of Turkey and Argentina have been under severe pressure during the past quarter as it becomes more difficult to fund their large external borrowing needs. We expect this weakness to spread to other emerging markets and eventually into high-yield corporate bonds if the U.S. central bank continues on its current path. We believe this is likely under the newly installed Fed Chairman Jay Powell.

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