April 2019 Investment Strategy

The investment environment has changed markedly during the first quarter of 2019. Following the plunge late last year which included the worst December for stocks since 1931, all assets have bounced seemingly straight up during the first three months of 2019. This sharp reversal has been driven by the startling change in rhetoric emanating from the U.S. central bank. After persistently raising interest rates throughout 2018, the Federal Reserve abruptly stopped any further increases and promised to end their balance sheet reduction program. While Wall Street has cheered these moves, we believe this is another opportunity to reduce risk across client portfolios. One way we have been reducing risk over the past few years has been purchasing high-quality companies that are more U.S.-centric rather than firms charging into the emerging markets promising riches. We believe this will benefit portfolios because the U.S. is poised to better withstand any upcoming economic slowdown.

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1 thought on “April 2019 Investment Strategy”

  1. For the second time this year, we have revised our economic growth forecasts downward in mature economies for 2019 and 2020. Industry is suffering globally, particularly because of trade conflicts leading to a contraction in world trade (excluding oil). Furthermore, investment programmes are being delayed by uncertain political issues, particularly in Europe (Brexit). Nonetheless, thanks to solid domestic demands, sustained by job creations that remain well-oriented, we are ruling out the risk of a recession. Inflation forecasts are also being revised downwards.

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